High-end climate change impact on European water availability and stress: exploring the presence of biasesHigh-end climate change impact on European water availability and stress: exploring the presence of biases Peer-Reviewed Journal Publication Δημοσίευση σε Περιοδικό με Κριτές 2015-11-102015enClimate models project a much more substantial warming than the 2 °C target making higher end scenarios increasingly plausible. Freshwater availability under such conditions is a key issue of concern. In this study, an ensemble of Euro-CORDEX projections under RCP8.5 is used to assess the mean and low hydrological states under +4 °C of global warming for the European region. Five major European catchments were analyzed in terms of future drought climatology and the impact of +2 vs. +4 °C global warming was investigated. The effect of bias correction of the climate model outputs and the observations used for this adjustment was also quantified. Projections indicate an intensification of the water cycle at higher levels of warming. Even for areas where the average state may not considerably be affected, low flows are expected to reduce leading to changes in the number of dry days and thus drought climatology. The identified increasing or decreasing runoff trends are substantially intensified when moving from the +2 to the +4 °C of global warming. Bias correction resulted in an improved representation of the historical hydrology. It is also found that the selection of the observational dataset for the application of the bias correction has an impact on the projected signal that could be of the same order of magnitude to the selection of the RCM. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions1277267-7325 Papadimitriou Labrini Παπαδημητριου Λαμπρινη Koutroulis Aristeidis Κουτρουλης Αριστειδης Gryllakis Emmanouil Γρυλλακης Εμμανουηλ Tsanis Giannis Τσανης Γιαννης Changes, Climatic Climate change Climate changes Climate variations Climatic change Climatic fluctuations Climatic variations Global climate changes Global climatic changes climatic changes changes climatic climate change climate changes climate variations climatic change climatic fluctuations climatic variations global climate changes global climatic changes