Factored MDPS for optimal prosumer decision-makingFactored MDPS for optimal prosumer decision-making Πλήρης Δημοσίευση σε Συνέδριο Conference Full Paper 2015-09-262015enTackling the decision-making problem faced by a prosumer (i.e., a producer that is simultaneously a consumer) when selling and buying energy in the emerging smart electricity grid, is of utmost importance for the economic profitability of such a business entity. In this paper, we model, for the first time, this problem as a factored Markov Decision Process. By so doing, we are able to represent the problem compactly, and provide an exact optimal solution via dynamic programming - notwithstanding its large size. Our model successfully captures the main aspects of the business decisions of a prosumer corresponding to a community microgrid of any size. Moreover, it includes appropriate sub-models for prosumer production and consumption prediction. Experimental simulations verify the effectiveness of our approach; and show that our exact value iteration solution matches that of a state-of-the-art method for stochastic planning in very large environments, while outperforming it in terms of computation time.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/503-511Proceedings of the 2015 International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems Georgios Chalkiadakis Angelos Angelidakis International Foundation for Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems EXPERIMENTS AND RESULTS PROSUMER PRODUCTION AND CON- SUMPTION MODELS SOLVING THE FMDP OUR MODEL BACKGROUND AND RELATED WORK