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Effects of climate change in the Moires Tympaki groundwater aquifer Heraklion Crete using the PTC model (Princeton transport code model) for the period 2005-2050 based on the RCP4.5-RCP8.5 climate scenarios

Nomikou Anna

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Summary

This thesis’s aim is the research of the impact of climate change on groundwater levels of the region of Moires - Tympakion Heraklion, Crete. The current situation of the groundwater aquifer was assessed by the numerical model Princeton Transport Code (PTC) for a 45year period, which was implemented in Argus One program. This model uses the numerical methods of finite elements and finite differences, in order to solve the spatially varying equations of the system. Specifically, the modelling of the aquifer and hydraulic heads takes place for the time period of 2005-2050, taking into account the rainfall data for this region and using PTC considering two different climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The study area, that plays an important role in agricultural activities, is facing the great danger of desertification, due to the extreme exploitation of the groundwater aquifer, which leads to the decrease of groundwater levels. In this thesis there is a description of the study area, considering the meteorological, hydrological and soil data, a description of the aquifer and its characteristics and an analysis of the saltwater intrusion phenomenon and the groundwater flow models. There is also a significant reference to climate change, the observed and the possible effects of it in groundwater levels, water resources and water safety. The theoretical background of the model PTC is explained and the exact steps that were followed. The modelling takes place twice, due to the different scenarios, but follows the same steps. The parameter that varies is the rainfall. At first, the 90 time stresses are set, the 3 different layers are defined and also their boundary conditions. The data that are processed are those from 58 pumping wells in the area. Regarding the rainfall data that were used for modelling, the initial data were daily rainfall data for the time period of 2005-2050, that were converted in monthly data and grouped in order to be summed for wet and dry seasons accordingly. Ultimately, the model runs and creates a mesh, from which 4 nodes are selected in order to further process their hydraulic heads’ in MATLAB. Eventually the final results on the hydraulic heads are presented for each climate scenario alongside comments on them and conclusions. The results of this thesis according to the climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 are presented in the form of diagrams for each node and they prove the groundwater levels to be stable enough through the years of modelling, despite some minor fluctuations for each selected node.

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