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Κοινωνικο-οικονομικές επιπτώσεις στη διαχείριση του υδατικού δυναμικού της λεκάνης απορροής του ποταμού Κοιλάρη

Valakos Panagiotis-Andreas

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Summary

The research deals with the hydrological simulation of the Koiliaris River Basin and the assessment of the socio-economic impacts on its management, for two future periods (2030 to 2050 and 2070 to 2090). The present study evaluates the flow originating from the surface runoff of the Koiliaris river as well as the flow from the karst springs of Stylos and Armenoi, incorporating the extended area of the municipality of Apokoronas in the simulation. Initially, the water needs of the area are calculated based on collected socio-economic data, which include demographic data, land uses, livestock, tourism, and water use permits. Then, the GIS-based hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used, along with the karst model (Karst – SWAT) to assess the flow of the karst springs in the area. For the calibration and verification of the model for the historical period 2004 to 2018, rainfall and temperature data from stations in the area are used in combination with daily river flow data. The evaluation of the model is performed using statistical indicators. The calibrated model is used to estimate the impact of climate change on the basin’s water balance for the two future periods under an adverse climate change scenario. For each future period, the estimated water supply is compared with the water needs of the area, taking into account the uncertainty due to the climatic scenario, to determine whether there will be periods of water deficit. The research combines the hydrological simulation of the study area with human pressures to assess the need for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

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