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Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds

Gaedeke, Anne, Krysanova, Valentina, Aryal Aashutosh, Chang Jinfeng, Gryllakis Emmanouil, Hanasaki Naota, Koutroulis Aristeidis, Pokhrel Yadu, Satoh Yusuke, Schaphoff Sibyll, Mueller Schmied Hannes, Stacke Tobias, Tang Qiuhong, Wada Yoshihide, Thonicke, Kirsten 1972-

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URIhttp://purl.tuc.gr/dl/dias/3EFFF2C7-4324-4CCD-B8E8-FEF66D8EA23F-
Identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02892-2-
Identifierhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-020-02892-2-
Languageen-
TitlePerformance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watershedsen
CreatorGaedeke, Anneen
CreatorKrysanova, Valentinaen
CreatorAryal Aashutoshen
CreatorChang Jinfengen
CreatorGryllakis Emmanouilen
CreatorΓρυλλακης Εμμανουηλel
CreatorHanasaki Naotaen
CreatorKoutroulis Aristeidisen
CreatorΚουτρουλης Αριστειδηςel
CreatorPokhrel Yaduen
CreatorSatoh Yusukeen
CreatorSchaphoff Sibyllen
CreatorMueller Schmied Hannesen
CreatorStacke Tobiasen
CreatorTang Qiuhongen
CreatorWada Yoshihideen
CreatorThonicke, Kirsten 1972-en
PublisherSpringer Natureen
Content SummaryGlobal Water Models (GWMs), which include Global Hydrological, Land Surface, and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, present valuable tools for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrological processes in the data scarce high latitudes. Here we performed a systematic model performance evaluation in six major Pan-Arctic watersheds for different hydrological indicators (monthly and seasonal discharge, extremes, trends (or lack of), and snow water equivalent (SWE)) via a novel Aggregated Performance Index (API) that is based on commonly used statistical evaluation metrics. The machine learning Boruta feature selection algorithm was used to evaluate the explanatory power of the API attributes. Our results show that the majority of the nine GWMs included in the study exhibit considerable difficulties in realistically representing Pan-Arctic hydrological processes. Average APIdischarge (monthly and seasonal discharge) over nine GWMs is > 50% only in the Kolyma basin (55%), as low as 30% in the Yukon basin and averaged over all watersheds APIdischarge is 43%. WATERGAP2 and MATSIRO present the highest (APIdischarge > 55%) while ORCHIDEE and JULES-W1 the lowest (APIdischarge ≤ 25%) performing GWMs over all watersheds. For the high and low flows, average APIextreme is 35% and 26%, respectively, and over six GWMs APISWE is 57%. The Boruta algorithm suggests that using different observation-based climate data sets does not influence the total score of the APIs in all watersheds. Ultimately, only satisfactory to good performing GWMs that effectively represent cold-region hydrological processes (including snow-related processes, permafrost) should be included in multi-model climate change impact assessments in Pan-Arctic watersheds.en
Type of ItemPeer-Reviewed Journal Publicationen
Type of ItemΔημοσίευση σε Περιοδικό με Κριτέςel
Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
Date of Item2021-04-20-
Date of Publication2020-
SubjectGlobal Water Modelsen
SubjectModel performanceen
SubjectModel evaluationen
SubjectArctic watershedsen
SubjectBoruta feature selectionen
Bibliographic CitationA. Gädeke, V. Krysanova, A. Aryal, J. Chang, M. Grillakis, N. Hanasaki, A. Koutroulis, Y. Pokhrel, Y. Satoh, S. Schaphoff, H. Müller Schmied, T. Stacke, Q. Tang, Y. Wada and K. Thonicke, “Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds”, Clim. Change, vol. 163, no. 3, pp. 1329–1351, Dec. 2020. doi: 10.1007/s10584-020-02892-2en

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