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Simulation of the Messara groundwater system using a finite elements model and testing of climate clange scenarios according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Diakoparaskevas Paraskevas

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Summary

In the context of this thesis the use of the three dimensional finite elements ground water model FEFLOW is examined. The ground water simulation is related to the aquifer of Messara which is located in the southern part of the island of Crete and specifically in the southern part of the Heraklion Prefecture. This region has great demand for water because it’s one of the biggest agricultural areas in Greece.A prerequisite for any groundwater simulation is the editing of all the necessary data and their correct processing into a compatible file format that can be imported to the groundwater model FEFLOW. The processing of input data is performed with the help of other programs and tools like ArcGIS, Hydrognomon, Matlab and Microsoft Excel. The program Arc GIS was mainly used for the processing of the maps that had to be imported in FEFLOW and whenever appropriate for data tables. The rest of the programs and tools were used for the process of time-series and constant data values that contain the information serving as the FEFLOW input. Water level of the aquifer for the years from 2009 to 2016 from 12 observation wells were available as input for FEFLOW. Apart from that, the value of the precipitation was imported for the corresponding years and also the pumping wells that existed in the area. Other necessary input parameters include the hydraulic conductivity values of different geological formations and the elevations of the study area. The last model parameter imported werethe boundary condition values set at the eastern and the western borders of the aquifer and the calibration and the validation of the model was accomplished.After the initial setup and calibration of the model, data according to 3 climate scenarios were used, namely the RCP 2.6, the RCP 4.5 and the RCP 8.5. Those scenarios constitute the simulated future values of solar radiation and greenhouse gases for the years to come. For each scenario, the precipitation values for each semester were calculated concerning the years from 2009 to 2039. For the simulation of the water level value of the aquifer the latest version of the calibrated FEFLOW was used to produce the new simulated values of groundwater resulting when taking into account the input values of parameters for the different scenarios for the years 2009 to 2039.The objective of the simulation of the aquifer that was conducted for the thesis was the simulation of the aquifer water level under the different RCP’s climate scenarios.

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