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Institutional Repository [SANDBOX]
Technical University of Crete
Technical University of Crete
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| URI | http://purl.tuc.gr/dl/dias/05E912C0-D956-401B-BD71-AB7B07E6BC13 | - |
| Identifier | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04915-0 | - |
| Identifier | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04915-0 | - |
| Language | en | - |
| Extent | 10 pages | en |
| Title | Abrupt events and population synchrony in the dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis | en |
| Creator | Moustakas Aristides | en |
| Creator | Evans Matthew R. | en |
| Creator | Daliakopoulos Ioannis | en |
| Creator | Δαλιακοπουλος Ιωαννης | el |
| Creator | Markonis Yannis | en |
| Publisher | Nature Publishing Group | en |
| Content Summary | Disease control strategies can have both intended and unintended effects on the dynamics of infectious diseases. Routine testing for the harmful pathogen Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) was suspended briefly during the foot and mouth disease epidemic of 2001 in Great Britain. Here we utilize bTB incidence data and mathematical models to demonstrate how a lapse in management can alter epidemiological parameters, including the rate of new infections and duration of infection cycles. Testing interruption shifted the dynamics from annual to 4-year cycles, and created long-lasting shifts in the spatial synchrony of new infections among regions of Great Britain. After annual testing was introduced in some GB regions, new infections have become more de-synchronised, a result also confirmed by a stochastic model. These results demonstrate that abrupt events can synchronise disease dynamics and that changes in the epidemiological parameters can lead to chaotic patterns, which are hard to be quantified, predicted, and controlled. | en |
| Type of Item | Peer-Reviewed Journal Publication | en |
| Type of Item | Δημοσίευση σε Περιοδικό με Κριτές | el |
| License | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en |
| Date of Item | 2019-05-23 | - |
| Date of Publication | 2018 | - |
| Subject | Disease control | en |
| Subject | Infectious diseases | en |
| Subject | Bovine Tuberculosis | en |
| Subject | Incidence data | en |
| Subject | Mathematical models | en |
| Subject | Epidemiological parameters | en |
| Subject | Abrupt events | en |
| Subject | Disease dynamics | en |
| Bibliographic Citation | A. Moustakas, M. R. Evans, I. N. Daliakopoulos and Y. Markonis, "Abrupt events and population synchrony in the dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis," Nature Comm., vol. 9, no. 1, Dec. 2018. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-04915-0 | en |
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