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Projections of water resources availability in Crete for the 21st century under the global change perspective

Koutroulis Aristeidis, Tsanis Giannis, Jacob Daniela

Πλήρης Εγγραφή

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Περίληψη

A robust signal of a warmer and drier climate over the westernMediterranean region is projected from the majority of climate models.This effect appears more pronounced during warm periods, when theseasonal decrease of precipitation can exceed control climatology by25-30%. The rapid development of Crete in the last 30 years has exertedstrong pressures on the natural resources of the region. Urbanizationand growth of agriculture, tourism and industry had strong impact on thewater resources of island by substantially increasing water demand. Theobjective of this study is to analyze and assess the impact of globalchange on the water resources status for the island of Crete for a rangeof 24 different scenarios of projected hydro-climatological regime,demand and supply potential. Water resources application issues analyzedand facilitated within this study, focusing on a refinement of thefuture water demands of the island, and comparing with "state of theart" global climate model (GCM) results and an ensemble of regionalclimate models (RCMs) under three different emission scenarios, toestimate water resources availability, during the 21st century. A robustsignal of water scarcity is projected for all the combinations ofemission (A2, A1B and B1), demand and infrastructure scenarios. Despitethe uncertainty of the assessments, the quantitative impact of theprojected changes on water availability indicates that climate changeplays an equally important role to water use and management incontrolling future water status in a Mediterranean island like theisland of Crete. The outcome of this analysis will assist in short andlong-term strategic water resources planning by prioritizing waterrelated infrastructure development.

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