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Using spatio-temporal marcov model for flood mapping: the case study ofYialias river in Cyprus

Alexakis Dimitrios, Koutroulis Aristeidis, Gryllakis Emmanouil, Agapiou Athos , Themistocleous Kyriacos , Tsanis Giannis, Hadjimitsis Diofantos G.

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URI: http://purl.tuc.gr/dl/dias/E289E32F-6EEF-4887-BE6F-73A27B1B429F
Year 2013
Type of Item Conference Publication
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Bibliographic Citation D.D. Alexakis, A.G. Koutroulis, M.G. Grillakis, A. Agapiou, K. Themistocleous, I.K. Tsanis and D.G. Hadjimitsis, “Using spatio-temporal Marcov model for Flood mapping: The case study of Yialias river in Cyprus”, in Remote Sensing for Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Hydrology. SPIE Remote Sensing, 23-26 September 2013. https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2029276
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Summary

Flooding is one of the most common disasters worldwide. This paperstrives to highlight the hydrological effects of multi-temporal land usechanges in flood hazard. The study area is Potamia basin established inthe broader Yialias catchment basin located in Nicosia -Cyprus. Thecertain area has suffered from several flood disasters in the recentpast. Initially, the land cover regime of the study area (last 20 years)was thoroughly studied using multi-temporal satellite (ASTER) andimplementing g sophisticated classification methodologies such as Objectoriented analysis. Land use/ Land cover (LULC) maps for the periods of1990, 2000 and 2010 were developed. All these maps were incorporated inthe CA-Markov chain analysis model and the LULC map of 2020 wasconstructed. The Markov chain analysis describes the probability of landcover change from one period to another by developing a transitionprobability matrix between two different time periods. Following, thehydrological analysis was performed using the Hydrological ModelingSystem (HEC-HMS). HEC-HMS is designed to simulate theprecipitation-runoff processes of dendritic watershed systems. TheHEC-HMS model was set up in distributed mode, enabling the utilizationof the spatial information on the land use via the Curve numbercoefficient. Thus, the 2020LULC map was incorporated in the hydrologicalmodel in order to predict the hydrological behavior of the catchmentarea for the next decade. The results were compared with the presenthydrological regime and denoted the future increase of runoff due o thepredicted extensive urban sprawl phenomenon.

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