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The use of a preference disaggregation method in energy analysis and policy making

Diakoulaki, Danai, Zopounidis Konstantinos, Michael Doumpos, Mavrotas, George

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Περίληψη

Following the oil crisis, most developed countries have increasingly implemented measures for energy conservation and fuels substitution aimed at decreasing the energy intensities of their economies. These efforts have been further augmented during the eighties due to growing awareness of adverse effects of energy use on the environment. The measures and their effectiveness differ greatly from country to country, without clear identification of the relevant cause–effect relations. We examine this issue by using a multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) method based on preference disaggregation analysis. The method used is the UTADIS (UTilités Additives DIScriminantes) method that has already been widely applied for financial management. The problem examined in this paper has been formulated following the segmentation approach where a number of countries are grouped into a set of predefined classes according to their energy intensities. The UTADIS method proceeds to the estimation of a set of additive utility functions referring to various indices characterizing the economic and energy structure of each country. The analysis is performed at 3 distinct points in time in order to check for consistency of results and investigate time-dependent phenomena. The results show to what extent each of the examined characteristics influences the countries' energy effectiveness and may be further exploited in energy-policy making. They confirm that the UTADIS method is a powerful tool for examination of a wide range of real decision situations.

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