G. Skroubelos, V. Moustakis V. "Methodological framework for
conducting a risk assessment study," presented at 4th International Conference on
WorkingonSafety.net. Heraklion, Greece, 2009.
Scope: This two‐phase study presents both a method for recording the potential incident scenarios and the danger sources they originate from as well as a model for calculating the incident scenarios likelihood coefficient L, thus limiting the assessor’s subjectivity influence on the results.Method: In the first part, the associated risk assessment terminology is clarified. Tables of potential hazards, their associated dangers and the resulting potential incident scenarios are presented. All scenarios were linked to three categories of managerial root causes and namely lack of (a) health and safety system, (b) communication and (c) enforcement. In the second part, the tools are used to acquire incident field data from actual facilities. The recorded total potential incident scenarios are linked to the immediate, basic and managerial root causesresponsible for triggering the incident (cause‐event) chain mechanism. Statistical data processing revealed a strong linear relationship between the managerial causes present, the remaining (active) potential incident scenarios and the likelihood of their occurrence, which allows the calculation of both the likelihood coefficient L used in the quantitative risk assessment models as well as the residual risk. Results: The potential incident scenario table and the questionnaire provided can be used to obtain field data results and an accurate identification of the total number of potential incidents in the great majority of operations. Equations are provided allowing assessors to calculate rather than speculate on the incident likelihood of occurrence directly from the number of total and active incident scenarios identified by the assessor, as well as an estimate on the minimum (non‐zero) residual risk.