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The prediction of bank acquisition targets with discriminant and logit analyses: Methodological issues and empirical evidence

Pasiouras Fotios, Sailesh Tanna

Πλήρης Εγγραφή


URI: http://purl.tuc.gr/dl/dias/B43BBA47-1D19-43D4-B290-6440B1AE4B34
Έτος 2010
Τύπος Δημοσίευση σε Περιοδικό με Κριτές
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Λεπτομέρειες
Βιβλιογραφική Αναφορά Pasiouras F, Tanna S., "The prediction of bank acquisition targets with discriminant and logit analyses: Methodological issues and empirical evidence", Research in International Business and Finance, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 39-61, Jan. 2010. doi: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2009.01.004 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2009.01.004
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Περίληψη

This paper uses discriminant and logit analyses to develop prediction models to identify bank acquisition targets. We consider several methodological issues, such as whether the choice of the estimation technique, the selection of variables, the use of raw versus industry relative data, the train-and-test sampling scheme, and the criteria for model evaluation affect the predictive accuracy of the developed models. Both estimation methods generate remarkably similar model performance rankings, while differences are revealed in the relative importance of variables when using raw versus industry relative data. We find that in most cases there is a fair amount of misclassification, consistent with previous studies in non-financial sectors, which is hard to avoid given the nature of the problem.

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