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Comparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for an ANN model of a karstic aquifer response

Trichakis Ioannis, Nikolos Ioannis, Karatzas Giorgos

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URIhttp://purl.tuc.gr/dl/dias/0C32C1C4-3C4F-4B80-8BEE-E7FEF0FA128D-
Identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8044-
Languageen-
Extent9en
TitleComparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for an ANN model of a karstic aquifer responseen
CreatorTrichakis Ioannisen
CreatorΤριχακης Ιωαννηςel
CreatorNikolos Ioannisen
CreatorΝικολος Ιωαννηςel
CreatorKaratzas Giorgosen
CreatorΚαρατζας Γιωργοςel
PublisherJohn Wiley and Sonsen
DescriptionΔημοσίευση σε επιστημονικό περιοδικό el
Content SummaryFollowing many applications artificial neural networks (ANNs) have found in hydrology, a question has been rising for quantification of the output uncertainty. A pre-optimized ANN simulated the hydraulic head change at two observation wells, having as input hydrological and meteorological parameters. In order to calculate confidence intervals (CI) for the ANN output two bootstrap methods were examined namely bootstrap percentile and BCa (Bias-Corrected and accelerated). The actual coverage of the CI was compared to the theoretical coverage for different certainty levels as a means of examining the method's reliability. The results of this work support the idea that the bootstrap methods provide a simple tool for confidence interval computation of ANNs. Comparing the two methods, the percentile requires fewer calculations and yields narrower intervals with similar actual coverage to that of BCa. Overall, the actual coverage was proved lower than desired when not modeled points were present in the data subset. en
Type of ItemPeer-Reviewed Journal Publicationen
Type of ItemΔημοσίευση σε Περιοδικό με Κριτέςel
Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
Date of Item2015-10-21-
Date of Publication2011-
Subjectconfidence intervalsen
Subjectartificial neural networksen
Subjectbootstrapen
Subjectkarstic aquifersen
Bibliographic Citation I.C. Trichakis, I.K. Nikolos, and G.P. Karatzas,"Comparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for an ANN model of a karstic aquifer response," Hydrological Processes, vol. 25, no. 18, pp. 2827–2836, Aug. 2011. doi: 10.1002/hyp.8044en

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