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Comparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for an ANN model of a karstic aquifer response

Trichakis Ioannis, Nikolos Ioannis, Karatzas Giorgos

Απλή Εγγραφή


URIhttp://purl.tuc.gr/dl/dias/0C32C1C4-3C4F-4B80-8BEE-E7FEF0FA128D-
Αναγνωριστικόhttps://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8044-
Γλώσσαen-
Μέγεθος9en
ΤίτλοςComparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for an ANN model of a karstic aquifer responseen
ΔημιουργόςTrichakis Ioannisen
ΔημιουργόςΤριχακης Ιωαννηςel
ΔημιουργόςNikolos Ioannisen
ΔημιουργόςΝικολος Ιωαννηςel
ΔημιουργόςKaratzas Giorgosen
ΔημιουργόςΚαρατζας Γιωργοςel
ΕκδότηςJohn Wiley and Sonsen
ΠεριγραφήΔημοσίευση σε επιστημονικό περιοδικό el
ΠερίληψηFollowing many applications artificial neural networks (ANNs) have found in hydrology, a question has been rising for quantification of the output uncertainty. A pre-optimized ANN simulated the hydraulic head change at two observation wells, having as input hydrological and meteorological parameters. In order to calculate confidence intervals (CI) for the ANN output two bootstrap methods were examined namely bootstrap percentile and BCa (Bias-Corrected and accelerated). The actual coverage of the CI was compared to the theoretical coverage for different certainty levels as a means of examining the method's reliability. The results of this work support the idea that the bootstrap methods provide a simple tool for confidence interval computation of ANNs. Comparing the two methods, the percentile requires fewer calculations and yields narrower intervals with similar actual coverage to that of BCa. Overall, the actual coverage was proved lower than desired when not modeled points were present in the data subset. en
ΤύποςPeer-Reviewed Journal Publicationen
ΤύποςΔημοσίευση σε Περιοδικό με Κριτέςel
Άδεια Χρήσηςhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
Ημερομηνία2015-10-21-
Ημερομηνία Δημοσίευσης2011-
Θεματική Κατηγορίαconfidence intervalsen
Θεματική Κατηγορίαartificial neural networksen
Θεματική Κατηγορίαbootstrapen
Θεματική Κατηγορίαkarstic aquifersen
Βιβλιογραφική Αναφορά I.C. Trichakis, I.K. Nikolos, and G.P. Karatzas,"Comparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for an ANN model of a karstic aquifer response," Hydrological Processes, vol. 25, no. 18, pp. 2827–2836, Aug. 2011. doi: 10.1002/hyp.8044en

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